By Bryan Trugman, CFPⓇ
If you thought your financial plan could ride out the year without surprises, think again. Our Q2 Market Update brings some reality—with a bit of attitude. Economic growth has been uneven, and the markets have been anything but steady. GDP estimates were lowered due to concerns over the labor market and the Administration’s shifting tariff policies, which kept changing deadlines, rates, and the list of affected imports.
That uncertainty stirred up market volatility. After the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, equities took a hit but recovered steadily through May and June, even surpassing earlier highs. International markets showed solid strength, outpacing many sectors. Meanwhile, tensions from the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites briefly shook energy and resource markets, but a quick ceasefire helped calm the waters.
Q2 Performance Review
- U.S. equity markets experienced a free-fall after April 2nd (Liberation Day) when double-digit tariffs across the board were announced by the Trump Administration, taking businesses and investors by surprise. These shockwaves were a reason the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 13 percent and the Dow fell nearly 11 percent from April 2nd through April 8th. U.S. equity markets recovered somewhat by May and then began an upward trend to exceed the previous highs (set in mid-February) by the end of June.
- International markets also fell in April, but recovered sooner and quicker than the U.S., with emerging markets and Asia leading the way.
- In the bond market, Treasury yields were volatile as well, due to concerns over potential inflationary pressures by the pending Trump tariff policies. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.80% early in the year, then were mixed through the rest of the quarter and had fallen to 4.39% as of June 27th.
- Pullbacks in growth expectations and amended Fed rate cuts lead to lower yields later in the quarter, particularly for lower-duration issues. The yield curve steepened as the difference between 2- and 10-year yields increased above 0.5%. The bond market is also reacting negatively to the estimated trillions in additional national debt in the proposed legislation winding its way through Congress during the second quarter. The U.S. dollar has experienced its largest six-month decline since 1973, falling over 10% against other major currencies.
Sector and Asset Class Performance
- U.S. stock markets reversed their April slide and ended the quarter with new highs. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% since March 31st and advanced 24.5% since the April 8th low. The Dow advancement was more modest, clocking in at just under 5%. Hardest hit in April was the Nasdaq Composite, but the tech-heavy index came roaring back, gaining 33% since the April 8 low and ending the quarter with an 18% gain overall.
- After leading stock indices downward in the first quarter, global growth stocks (powered once again by the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks) led the way for market advances in Q2 with a 17.7% gain in the quarter.
- Surprisingly, dividend stocks proved their resiliency in tough conditions, rising 6.5% as of June 20th. Value stocks lagged growth for the quarter, but still maintains the top spot for U.S. stock year-to-date.
- International bonds are the stars of the fixed-income market with U.S. Treasuries and bonds affected by the weakened dollar. Global inflation-linked bonds and investment-grade bonds led all other sectors with 4.7% and 4.4% gains, respectively. U.S. high-yield bonds gained 3.3% for the quarter while range-bound U.S. Treasuries barely budged.
- International markets continued their gains with emerging markets advancing 12.2% in the quarter. Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with the weaker dollar, helped EM gains, with Asia as the top-performing region.
- For the quarter, technology, industrials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples were top-performing sectors. Energy (oil) and healthcare were laggards, each posting more than 6% in losses.
Federal Reserve and Economic Analysis
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (FOMC) to cut rates have fluctuated. The Fed continues to believe that inflation, while currently under control, has the potential to strengthen on the back of lingering tariff influences. The FOMC believes tariff pressures on prices have not yet worked their way into the U.S. economy and wavering Administration policy regarding tariffs with various countries is causing business and consumer uncertainty.
Currently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding expectations for interest rate cuts, despite continued public criticism by the Administration, and in its June meeting, the Fed maintained its “wait and see” monetary policy, with a target range for the Fed Funds Rate still at 4.24% to 4.5%. The Fed still projects two 0.25% rate cuts later in 2025, based on updated economic projections, and downgraded its economic outlook for 2025.
The Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policy and its effects on the economy. Q1’s surprising 0.3% contraction in GDP surprised investors and the financial markets, and as of its June meeting, the Fed is projecting a somewhat lower GDP forecast for the year with potentially higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Investment Strategy
The uncertainty of the U.S. government’s trade and tariff policies, the falling dollar, and the pending effects of tariff inflation on economic growth (including how the Fed will respond) suggests that caution and wide diversification remain watchwords for investors. Slowing economic growth and pressure from the White House to lower rates may suggest that interest rate cuts could materialize, however, the Fed’s concern about inflation should remind everyone of the adage “Don’t fight the Fed.”
Now that tech has regained the losses of Q1 and value continues to build gains, across-the-board allocations in stocks may be a good choice for most. With international markets leading global advances, some overweight in emerging markets and inflation-linked global bonds may be considered. Fixed-income investors may look to an allocation toward high-yield and inflation-mitigating bond investments to combat any potential inflation that could creep into the economy, if tariff pressures appear in supply costs and consumer pricing.
Overall, although the economy appears resilient, there appears to be enough contradictory evidence over which direction it will take that wide diversification and investment-risk management may be wise through Q3 and the summer months.
Understanding the Impact of the Q2 Market Update on Your Investments
Staying grounded during periods of market change can be challenging, especially in light of the insights shared in our Q2 Market Update and the continued shifts in today’s economy. If recent developments have you reconsidering your financial plan, this may be a timely opportunity to revisit your strategy.
At Attitude Financial Advisors, we’re here to help you make informed, confident decisions. Our team can work with you to strategize your investments with your long-term goals and risk tolerance. Reach out to me via email at btrugman@attitudefinancial.com or give me a call at (516) 762-7603 to set up a free consultation.
About Bryan
Bryan Trugman is managing partner, co-founder, and a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner at Attitude Financial Advisors. With more than 17 years of experience, Bryan specializes in addressing the financial needs of new parents as they seek to realign their finances, assisting divorced individuals as they navigate an unforeseen fork in the road, and strategizing with those seeking to accrue a dependable retirement nest egg. Bryan is known for being a good listener and building strong relationships with his clients so he can help them develop a customized financial plan based on what’s important to them. He is passionate about helping his clients experience financial confidence so they can worry less and play more. Bryan has a bachelor’s degree in industrial and systems engineering with a minor in mathematics from State University of New York at Binghamton. He has served on the board of the Financial Planning Association and continues to be actively involved in the national organization. He is also a member of the Plainview-Old Bethpage Chamber of Commerce and has served as its vice president and as a board member. When he’s not working, you can find Bryan on the ballroom dance floor or engaged in a fast-paced game of doubles on the tennis court. To learn more about Bryan, connect with him on LinkedIn. Or, watch his latest webinar on: How Much Is Enough? A Surprisingly Simple Way to Calculate Your Retirement Savings Needs.
